Odds of False-Positive Mammograms During 10 Years of Screen.

Odds of False-Positive Mammograms During 10 Years of Screen.

Messaggioda eco_admin » 12 dic 2011

Attualità 27.11.2011

Fonte: Hubbard RA et al. Cumulative probability of false positive recall or biopsy recommendation after 10 years of screening mammography: A cohort study. Ann Intern Med 2011 Oct 18; 155:481.

Odds of False-Positive Mammograms During 10 Years of Screenings
The cumulative probabilities of false positive mammography results were 60% and 40% for annual and biennial screening, respectively.


The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommends biennial screening mammography starting at age 50 unless a woman is at high risk for breast cancer (JW Gen Med Dec 15 2009, p. 189, and Ann Intern Med 2009; 151:716). Despite this recommendation, many patients request, and many providers and societies continue to recommend, earlier and more frequent screening. In this study, researchers used data from a breast cancer surveillance consortium to model the cumulative probability of a false-positive screening mammogram under differing screening approaches. More than 160,000 women were included in the registry. During 10 years, the adjusted cumulative probabilities of a false-positive mammography result were 61% for annual screening and 42% for biennial screening, regardless of whether a woman started screening at age 40 or 50. Although most false-positives resulted in additional imaging without biopsy, the cumulative probability of a false-positive biopsy recommendation was 7% for annual screening and 5% for biennial screening beginning at age 40 (and was slightly higher if screening started at age 50).

COMMENT
During 10 years, a majority of women who undergo annual screening mammograms will receive at least one false-positive mammography result. For women who undergo biennial screening, this rate is lower but remains relatively high at 40%. Because rates for both annual and biennial screening are high, that false-positive concerns would be a decisive factor for most women’s choice of annual versus biennial screening seems unlikely. — Jamaluddin Moloo, MD, MPH

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